Insights
The End Bad Governance in Nigeria protest is scheduled to take place across the 36 states and the federal capital from August 1 to 10. The government has raised concerns regarding the potential for violent protests and the loss of life and property. These protests, rumoured to begin in August aim to address various governance issues such as the high cost of food prices, hunger, high cost of governance, fuel prices,and more. This article discusses incidents of risk during political protests in Nigeria over the past six years,the reasons for some of these protests, and the incidents of deaths and injuries.
In recent years, citizens in Nigeria have protested for a range of causes, such as demanding higher wages for workers, payment on pensions, advocating for the #BringBackOurGirls campaign, participating in the #EndSARS movement, and demonstrating against frequent attacks by bandits. Many of these protests have gained significant traction across various Nigerian states, as shown in the chart below.
Source: Nigeria Risk Index
The NRI data shows a continual increase in protests between 2022 and July 2023. The significant rise in injuries and deaths in 2023 was attributed to factors such as electoral protests during the 2023 elections and a scarcity of naira notes earlier that year. Most of the protests in the past six years resulted in low casualties, with no recorded deaths. However, in protests that did result in casualties, there were usually 1 to 4 deaths.
The year 2020 was hard-hitting, with at least 190 recorded deaths, the majority of which were a result of the #EndSARS protest. It also saw the highest number of recorded protests. Following 2020, there was a significant decline in the number of protests, possibly due to the aftermath of the EndSARS shooting.
This is only the second half of the year, and there is a rise in protests across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Some of these protests have been led by students who are against the increase in school fees, citizens aggrieved by the incessant kidnappings, hunger, and more. On June 12, Nigerians protested economic hardship in Abuja, demanding change. With this increase in the number of protests, will the #EndBadGovernanceinNigeria protests still take place? It is clear that the Tinubu administration is on high alert, likely due to the intent to avoid a recurrence of the 2020 EndSARS protests that resulted in significant loss of life and property damage. Their heightened concern suggests a focus on maintaining order and preventing the past from repeating itself.
The Risk Control Team
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