Understanding the Surge in Killings Across Nigeria’s North Central Region: Drivers, Dynamics, and the Path to Stability

The North Central region of Nigeria, particularly Plateau, Benue, and Nasarawa states, has in recent months witnessed a resurgence of brutal attacks, often marked by coordinated assaults on villages, mass killings, and widespread destruction. These events have drawn national and international attention, not only for their frequency but for their intensity and seeming impunity. While these killings are often described as farmer-herder conflicts, deeper structural, political, and criminal elements are at play making the situation far more complex and dangerous than it may appear on the surface.

In cities like Abuja, Kano, Kaduna, Lagos, Ibadan, Port Harcourt, Onitsha, and Asaba, the fallout from these attacks is increasingly being felt from the displacement of citizens to rising food insecurity and localized economic downturns. These cities serve as both safe havens for displaced persons and flashpoints of inter-communal tension.

What is Driving the Violence?

At the core of the crisis is the persistent struggle over land and access to natural resources. As climate change alters grazing patterns and arable land becomes scarcer, nomadic herders increasingly clash with farming communities. These disputes, once resolved through traditional mediation, now often spiral into violent attacks due to the breakdown of community trust.

Compounding this is a volatile mix of ethnic and religious tension. The demographic diversity of the region often becomes a fault line, with identity-based attacks fueling cycles of revenge. Security agencies, as noted by Amnesty International, have been overwhelmed by the scale of attacks and lack sufficient operational intelligence to preempt them.

According to Dr. Chidi Odinkalu, former Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission, What we are witnessing is not just random violence; it’s systemic, and the state's failure to prosecute offenders only deepens impunity.

Criminal groups have seized on the chaos, engaging in organized banditry, kidnapping, and cattle rustling. These groups often exploit ethnic narratives as a cover for purely economic motives, further complicating the security landscape.

Is Politics at Play?

There are undeniable political undercurrents. Communities accuse both state and federal governments of selective response whether due to ethnic alignment or lack of political will. According to SBM Intelligence, Periods leading up to elections tend to see spikes in communal attacks, suggesting possible strategic motivations behind the violence.