Location Intelligence - Adamawa State

Activity Pace

The overall security situation in Adamawa has seen a slight decrease in incidents, with a 3.4% drop from 29 incidents to 28, between January 1, 2025 to May 14, 2025 and January 1, 2026 to May 14, 2026. However, the number of fatalities and victims has increased significantly, by 66.7% and 109.1% respectively, indicating a more severe impact of the incidents. This trend suggests that while the frequency of incidents may be decreasing, their severity is increasing.

Rising Risk

Homicide and kidnapping have emerged as the most frequent risks in Adamawa, with 7 and 6 incidents respectively, between January 1, 2026 and May 14, 2026. The fact that these risks are prominent in the current period suggests that they may be rising threats in the region, and security measures should be taken to mitigate them.

Severity Level

The lethality of incidents in Adamawa has increased, with a fatality rate of 55 fatalities per 28 incidents, or approximately 1.96 fatalities per incident, between January 1, 2026 and May 14, 2026. This is a significant increase from the same period last year, which had a fatality rate of 33 fatalities per 29 incidents, or approximately 1.14 fatalities per incident.

Future Outlook

Based on the current trajectory, the security situation in Adamawa is expected to remain volatile, with a potential for increased severity of incidents. The fact that May 2026 has seen no incidents so far may indicate a temporary lull, but the overall trend suggests that security measures should be maintained or increased to mitigate the rising severity of incidents.