Location Intelligence - Osun State

Activity Pace

From January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, Osun experienced a -7.7% decrease in incidents and a -78.6% decrease in fatalities compared to the same period in 2025. This downward trend suggests an improvement in security conditions, with 24 incidents recorded in the current period versus 26 in the prior period. The significant reduction in fatalities, from 28 to 6, indicates a notable decrease in the lethality of incidents.

Rising Risk

Armed Robbery has emerged as a significant risk in Osun, with 4 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026. This risk type is followed closely by Theft, with 3 incidents reported during the same period. The presence of these crime types indicates a need for increased vigilance and security measures to protect against such threats.

Severity Level

Homicide is among the top risks in Osun, with 3 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026. Although the overall fatality rate has decreased, the presence of Homicide incidents suggests that lethal violence remains a concern. However, with only 6 fatalities recorded in the current period, the lethality rate per incident has decreased, indicating a less deadly security environment compared to the same period last year.

Future Outlook

Given the stable trend in the current month and the lack of significant seasonal patterns, the near-term security outlook for Osun appears stable. With no incidents recorded in May 2026, and considering the overall decrease in incidents and fatalities, it is likely that the security situation will remain relatively calm in the short term, barring any unforeseen events or changes in the security landscape.