Intelligence for
Ondo State

Activity Pace

Between January 1, 2026, and July 1, 2026, total incidents rose by 2.8% to 73, compared to 71 in the same period last year. However, fatalities saw a significant decrease of 71.7%, with 26 recorded this year against 92 last year, indicating a shift in the severity of incidents despite a slight increase in overall occurrences.

Rising Risk

While overall incidents increased slightly, the data for Jan 1 - Jul 1, 2026, highlights Kidnapping as the most frequent risk, accounting for 27 out of 73 incidents. This suggests a persistent and potentially growing threat from kidnapping activities, requiring heightened vigilance and preventative measures.

Severity Level

The period from Jan 1, 2026, to Jul 1, 2026, recorded 26 fatalities out of 73 incidents. This represents a fatality rate of approximately 35.6%. The significant decrease in fatalities compared to the same period in 2025, where 92 fatalities occurred, suggests a potential improvement in response or a change in the nature of criminal activities.

Future Outlook

Given the slight increase in overall incidents and the notable decrease in fatalities year-on-year, the near-term outlook suggests continued but potentially less lethal criminal activity. The prominence of Kidnapping as a primary risk indicates that this threat will likely persist, demanding targeted security strategies.