Location Intelligence - Ondo State

Activity Pace

The security situation in Ondo has shown a notable improvement from January 1, 2025, to May 14, 2025, compared to the same period in 2026, with an 8.6% decrease in incidents, from 58 to 53. This decrease is accompanied by a significant reduction in fatalities and victims, with a 75.6% decrease in fatalities from 90 to 22, and a 68.7% decrease in victims from 281 to 88, indicating a positive trend in the state's security landscape.

Rising Risk

Kidnapping has emerged as a significant threat in Ondo, with 19 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, making it the most frequent risk during this period. This represents a substantial portion of the total 53 incidents, highlighting the need for increased vigilance and security measures to combat this rising risk.

Severity Level

Insufficient lethality data for this period to calculate a fatality rate for specific risk types. However, the overall fatality rate for the period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, is approximately 39.3% (22 fatalities out of 56 total incidents with known outcomes), indicating a relatively high level of violence associated with the incidents that occurred.

Future Outlook

Based on the current trajectory, the security situation in Ondo is expected to remain stable, with the number of incidents potentially decreasing further. The absence of incidents in May 2026, coupled with the overall decrease in incidents and victims, suggests a positive outlook for the near term, but continued vigilance is necessary to address the ongoing risks, particularly kidnapping, which remains a significant concern.