Location Intelligence - Bauchi State

Activity Pace

From January 1, 2026 to May 14, 2026, Bauchi experienced a significant increase in fatalities and victims, with a 2228.9% rise in fatalities and a 223.7% increase in victims, compared to the same period in 2025. The number of incidents remained stable at 31. This surge in fatalities and victims indicates a deteriorating security situation, with a notable escalation in the severity of incidents.

Rising Risk

Between January 1, 2026, and May 14, 2026, Homicide emerged as a major risk in Bauchi, accounting for 6 incidents, followed closely by Theft, Transportation Accident, Assaults, and Armed Robbery, each with 4 incidents. The involvement of various actors, including Citizens and Bandits, suggests a complex security landscape with multiple emerging threats.

Severity Level

Insufficient lethality data for this period to calculate a precise fatality rate, but with 1048 fatalities from 31 incidents, the average lethality per incident is approximately 33.8. This indicates a high level of violence associated with the incidents in Bauchi from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026.

Future Outlook

Given the stable number of incidents but significant increase in fatalities and victims from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, the near-term outlook for Bauchi suggests a continued high risk of violent incidents. The recent surge in severity may indicate an escalation of existing conflicts or the emergence of new, more violent actors, warranting heightened security precautions and monitoring.