Location Intelligence - Nasarawa State

Activity Pace

Security incidents in Nasarawa have increased by 12.5% from 24 to 27 between Jan 1 - Jun 1, 2025, and Jan 1 - Jun 1, 2026. This rise is accompanied by a significant 96.7% increase in victims, from 30 to 59 over the same period. While fatalities decreased by 16.7%, the surge in victims suggests a more widespread impact from ongoing security challenges.

Rising Risk

Kidnapping remains the most frequent risk, accounting for 7 incidents in the current period (Jan 1 - Jun 1, 2026). This trend, coupled with 4 incidents of Human Trafficking, indicates a persistent and concerning pattern of organized crime targeting individuals in the state. The high number of victims suggests these activities are impacting a broad segment of the population.

Severity Level

While overall fatalities decreased by 16.7% from 24 to 20 between Jan 1 - Jun 1, 2025, and Jan 1 - Jun 1, 2026, the number of victims increased significantly. The fatality rate for the current period is approximately 33.9% (20 fatalities out of 59 victims), indicating that while fewer people are dying, those who are targeted face a high risk of death.

Future Outlook

Given the 12.5% increase in incidents and a near doubling of victims year-on-year, the security outlook for Nasarawa remains challenging. The persistent high incidence of kidnapping and human trafficking suggests these threats will continue to dominate the security landscape in the near term, requiring sustained vigilance and targeted interventions.