Location Intelligence - Kwara State

Activity Pace

The current period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, has seen a -3.8% decrease in incidents compared to the same period last year, with 51 incidents recorded this year versus 53 in the prior period. However, the number of fatalities has increased by 163.2% from 95 to 250, and victims have risen by 25.5% from 271 to 340. This suggests a more violent trend in the incidents that are occurring.

Rising Risk

Kidnapping and Fire Outbreak have emerged as the most frequent risks in Kwara from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, each with 10 incidents. This dual threat suggests that security measures should be enhanced to prevent and respond to these types of incidents, particularly in the most affected LGA, Asa.

Severity Level

The lethality of incidents in Kwara has increased significantly, with a fatality rate of approximately 0.735 fatalities per incident (250 fatalities / 340 victims) for the period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026. This is a notable increase from the prior period, indicating a more severe security situation.

Future Outlook

Given the stable monthly incident trend from January to April 2026, with a range of 8 to 19 incidents per month, and considering the absence of incidents in May 2026, the near-term outlook for Kwara appears stable. However, the increased lethality and victim counts suggest that security measures should remain vigilant to prevent and mitigate the impact of potential future incidents.