Location Intelligence - Borno State

Activity Pace

The security situation in Borno has deteriorated significantly from January 1, 2025 to May 15, 2025, compared to the same period in 2026. Incidents have increased by 8.8% (from 57 to 62), while fatalities and victims have risen by 190.1% (from 142 to 412) and 351.3% (from 199 to 898) respectively. This trend indicates a worsening security environment.

Rising Risk

Terrorism remains the most frequent risk in Borno, with 35 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026 to May 15, 2026. This accounts for more than half of the total incidents during this period. The presence of groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram continues to pose a significant threat to the region's security.

Severity Level

The lethality of incidents in Borno has increased substantially, with a fatality rate of 412 fatalities per 62 incidents, or approximately 6.65 fatalities per incident. This is a significant rise from the same period last year, when the fatality rate was approximately 2.49 fatalities per incident. Terrorism is the primary driver of this increased lethality.

Future Outlook

Given the current trajectory, the security situation in Borno is likely to remain volatile in the near term. The absence of incidents in May 2026 may be an anomaly, and the region could experience a resurgence of violence. The continued presence of terrorist groups and other security threats means that corporations, NGOs, and travellers should exercise extreme caution when operating in the area.