Location Intelligence - Kebbi State

Activity Pace

The security situation in Kebbi has deteriorated significantly, with a 44.4% increase in incidents from 18 to 26, a 61.9% increase in fatalities from 63 to 102, and a 523.5% increase in victims from 68 to 424, comparing the period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, with the same period in 2025. This escalation in violence and victimization indicates a worsening security environment. The rapid growth in victims is particularly concerning, suggesting a broader impact on the population.

Rising Risk

Homicide has emerged as a significant threat in Kebbi, with 9 incidents recorded between January 1, 2026, and May 14, 2026, making it the most frequent risk during this period. This trend, combined with the presence of bandits as the primary actors in 14 incidents, highlights the need for targeted interventions to address violent crime and banditry in the region, particularly in the most affected LGA, Aleiro.

Severity Level

Insufficient lethality data for this period to calculate a fatality rate for specific risk types. However, the overall fatality count has increased by 61.9% from 63 to 102, comparing the same 134-day periods in 2025 and 2026, indicating a higher lethality in the current period.

Future Outlook

Given the current trajectory, the near-term outlook for security in Kebbi appears challenging, with the potential for continued escalation in incidents, fatalities, and victimization. The absence of incidents in May 2026, following a pattern of decreasing monthly incidents since February, might suggest a temporary stabilization, but without a clear understanding of the underlying factors, it is prudent to anticipate that security challenges could persist or worsen, necessitating sustained vigilance and proactive measures.