Location Intelligence - Kaduna State

Activity Pace

From January 1, 2026, to May 19, 2026, Kaduna experienced a -10.4% decrease in incidents compared to the same period last year, with 43 incidents recorded this year versus 48 in the prior period. However, the number of victims increased by 62.9% and fatalities rose by 13.9% over the same period, indicating a more severe impact from the incidents that did occur. This trend suggests that while the frequency of incidents may be decreasing, their severity is increasing.

Rising Risk

Kidnapping has emerged as a significant threat in Kaduna, with 20 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026, to May 19, 2026, accounting for nearly half of all incidents in the area. This highlights the need for increased vigilance and security measures to mitigate the risk of kidnapping, particularly in the most affected local government area, Birnin Gwari.

Severity Level

With 41 fatalities resulting from 43 incidents, the lethality rate in Kaduna from January 1, 2026, to May 19, 2026, is approximately 0.95 fatalities per incident. This high lethality rate, combined with the 13.9% increase in fatalities compared to the same period last year, underscores the severity of the security situation in the region and the need for targeted interventions to reduce the risk of fatal outcomes.

Future Outlook

Given the current trajectory, the near-term outlook for security in Kaduna appears challenging, with the potential for continued severe incidents. The absence of incidents in May 2026 may indicate a temporary lull, but the overall trend suggests that security stakeholders should remain vigilant and prepare for potential future incidents, particularly those involving kidnapping and other high-risk activities.