Location Intelligence - Zamfara State

Activity Pace

The security situation in Zamfara has shown a decline in incidents, fatalities, and victims, with a 6.3% decrease in incidents, a 43.4% decrease in fatalities, and a 57.8% decrease in victims, comparing the period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, with the same period in 2025. This trend suggests an overall improvement in security. The reduction in incidents and victims indicates a lower level of violence, while the significant decrease in fatalities implies a decrease in the lethality of attacks.

Rising Risk

Terrorism remains a significant risk in Zamfara, with 16 incidents recorded from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, making it the most frequent risk type. Additionally, the presence of bandits, responsible for 24 incidents, and the occurrence of kidnapping, with 10 incidents, highlight the need for continued vigilance against these threats. The fact that Anka is the most affected LGA indicates a geographical concentration of risks that should be addressed.

Severity Level

Insufficient lethality data for this period to calculate a precise fatality rate for each risk type. However, with 86 fatalities resulting from 45 incidents, the overall lethality of attacks in Zamfara from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, is a concern. The most lethal incidents are likely associated with terrorism and banditry, given their frequency and the involvement of armed groups.

Future Outlook

Given the current trajectory, with a stable trend observed in the monthly incidents and the seasonal comparison showing no significant changes, the near-term outlook for Zamfara suggests a continuation of the relatively lower levels of violence and incidents. However, the presence of terrorism, banditry, and kidnapping means that security forces and stakeholders must remain vigilant to prevent an escalation of violence and to protect vulnerable communities, particularly in areas like Anka.