Location Intelligence - Ogun State

Activity Pace

The overall security situation in Ogun has improved significantly, with a 59.3% decrease in incidents from 145 to 59, and a 58% decrease in fatalities from 131 to 55, between January 1, 2025 to May 14, 2025 and January 1, 2026 to May 14, 2026. This downward trend suggests a reduction in security threats. The number of victims has also decreased by 49% from 341 to 174, indicating a positive shift in the security landscape.

Rising Risk

Transportation accidents have emerged as a major risk in Ogun, accounting for 20 out of 59 incidents between January 1, 2026, and May 14, 2026. This risk type is a significant concern, and its frequency highlights the need for improved road safety measures and emergency response planning. As the most frequent risk, it is essential to address the underlying causes of transportation accidents to mitigate their impact.

Severity Level

Homicide is a significant risk in Ogun, with 8 incidents recorded between January 1, 2026, and May 14, 2026. Although the lethality data for specific risk types is not provided, the overall fatality rate can be calculated. With 55 fatalities out of 59 incidents, the fatality rate is approximately 93%. This high fatality rate underscores the need for targeted interventions to reduce the lethality of security incidents in Ogun.

Future Outlook

Based on the current trajectory, the security situation in Ogun is likely to remain stable in the near term, with a continued decrease in incidents and fatalities. The absence of incidents in May 2026 suggests a positive trend, but it is essential to remain vigilant and monitor the situation closely. With the most affected LGA being Obafemi Owode, targeted security measures and community engagement initiatives can help sustain the current downward trend in security threats.