Location Intelligence - Bayelsa State

Activity Pace

The number of incidents in Bayelsa has decreased by 75% from 20 to 5, comparing the period from January 1, 2026, to May 14, 2026, with the same period in 2025. This significant reduction indicates a substantial improvement in security. The decrease in fatalities and victims, by 90.3% and 77.6% respectively, further reinforces this positive trend.

Rising Risk

While the overall number of incidents has decreased, Unsafe Route/Violent Attacks remain a significant risk, accounting for 2 out of the 5 incidents recorded between January 1, 2026, and May 14, 2026. This suggests that despite the general improvement in security, certain types of threats persist and require continued attention.

Severity Level

With 3 fatalities out of 11 victims, the lethality rate for the current period in Bayelsa is approximately 27.3%. This indicates that while the number of incidents and fatalities has decreased, the potential for violent outcomes remains a concern, particularly in incidents involving Unsafe Route/Violent Attacks.

Future Outlook

Given the stable trend in the last few months, with no incidents recorded in May 2026, and considering the significant decrease in incidents and fatalities compared to the same period last year, the near-term outlook for Bayelsa appears positive. However, continued vigilance is necessary, especially regarding Unsafe Route/Violent Attacks, to maintain and further improve the current security situation.