Location Intelligence - Lagos State

Activity Pace

The number of incidents in Lagos has decreased by 34.3% from 198 to 130, comparing the period from Jan 1, 2025 to May 16, 2025 with the same period in 2026. This downward trend is also reflected in fatalities and victims, with a 16.4% decrease in fatalities from 67 to 56 and a 6.6% decrease in victims from 318 to 297. This suggests an overall improvement in security in Lagos over the past year.

Rising Risk

Transportation accidents have emerged as the most frequent risk in Lagos, accounting for 39 incidents from Jan 1, 2026 to May 16, 2026. This is followed by fire outbreaks with 16 incidents, and drug trafficking/drug abuse with 12 incidents. The dominance of transportation accidents as a risk type highlights the need for enhanced road safety measures in Lagos.

Severity Level

Insufficient lethality data for this period to determine the deadliest risk type with a precise fatality rate. However, with 56 fatalities recorded from Jan 1, 2026 to May 16, 2026, the overall lethality of incidents in Lagos remains a concern, particularly in the context of transportation accidents and other high-risk events.

Future Outlook

Based on the current trajectory, the number of incidents in Lagos is expected to remain stable or possibly decrease in the near term, given the downward trend observed from Jan 1, 2025 to May 16, 2025, and Jan 1, 2026 to May 16, 2026. The zero incidents recorded in May 2026 may indicate a positive trend, but it is essential to continue monitoring the situation to assess the sustainability of this improvement.